Oscars 2024 predictions: Who will win - and who should?

1. Best picture

The film "Oppenheimer" is leading the race for multiple accolades, yet there's always room for the unexpected. The cinema experts at BBC Culture share their forecasts for the major awards.

Predicting the recipient of the Oscars' highest honor always comes with an air of uncertainty. The past has shown us surprise shifts in winners, with films such as "The Power of the Dog" and "La La Land" losing their presumed lead. Nonetheless, it would be nothing short of a shock if "Oppenheimer" didn't walk away with the title of Best Picture. The film isn't just a vessel for a significant historical figure and an outstanding ensemble cast; it is a cinematic achievement that weaves complexity with technical brilliance. Christopher Nolan's interpretation of J. Robert Oppenheimer’s tale transcends the typical biographical drama of Tinseltown. Not to mention its staggering worldwide box-office success, its sweeping of the awards season, and its leading heap of Oscar nods—a total of 13. While "Oppenheimer" might not top my personal list of favorites for Best Picture, its victory would nonetheless be laudable.

The expansion of the Best Picture category to include up to 10 nominees in 2009 was indeed partly prompted by the omission of Christopher Nolan's "The Dark Knight" in the prior year. Now, Nolan's "Oppenheimer" appears destined to take that category by storm, bringing Nolan's journey to a poetic completion. His latest masterpiece offers a delicate juxtaposition of heart-stopping drama and a testament to artistic finesse, positioning it as the frontrunner for Best Picture. While "Killers of the Flower Moon" and "Poor Things" stand out for their unique merits, it's the lofty aspirations and creativity of "Oppenheimer" that cement its status as this year's foremost film.

Cillian Murphy and Oppenheimer director Christopher Nolan (Credit: Universal)

2. Best director

Christopher Nolan is a highly acclaimed director who has created exceptional films such as Memento, Inception, and Dunkirk. Although he has been nominated for an Oscar several times, he has yet to win. However, this year's Directors Guild Award win for his latest film, Oppenheimer, suggests that he may finally receive the recognition he deserves. Oppenheimer is a remarkable project that showcases Nolan's unique vision and skill as a director. While other directors such as Jonathan Glazer, Yorgos Lanthimos, Martin Scorsese, or Justine Triet have also done excellent work, Nolan's outstanding achievement in overseeing Oppenheimer sets him apart. It is clear that Nolan has drawn on the lessons he learned from his previous films to create this ambitious project. As a result, it is likely that he will win the Best Director Oscar, and possibly other awards for writing and producing the film as well.

Best actor nominee Cillian Murphy in Oppenheimer (Credit: Universal)

3. Best actor

The race for this category is far from a foregone conclusion. Cillian Murphy stands out as a leading contender for his absorbing portrayal in "Oppenheimer," bolstered by his recent triumph at the Screen Actors Guild Awards for lead actor. However, the Academy may opt for diversity in its distribution of Oscars, considering there are a few beloved American actors in the mix. Paul Giamatti and Jeffrey Wright haven’t received Oscar accolades despite their commendable careers, which could sway voters their way for their profound performances in "The Holdovers" and "American Fiction." While Murphy's dynamic range, displayed across various eras and emotions, makes him my top pick, I would also applaud a win for Giamatti.

Cillian Murphy's turn in "Oppenheimer" has him poised for this accolade with impeccable merit. His portrayal, both subtle and emotionally complex, anchors the film as its tormented heart. Yet, there’s a lingering possibility for Paul Giamatti, with his affecting, yet notably more flamboyant role in "The Holdovers"—a type that often captures Oscar voters' attention. Despite this, Murphy's Screen Actors Guild victory, especially significant given that actors constitute the largest voting bloc of the Oscars, likely tips the scales in his favor.

Best actress nominee Lily Gladstone in Killers of the Flower Moon (Credit: Apple Studios)

4. Best actress

This contest has always seemed to be a head-to-head between Lily Gladstone and Emma Stone, both delivering performances that vary greatly in style but not in depth. However, Gladstone has recently edged forward, securing the SAG award. Her nuanced and captivating portrayal of Molly Burkhart in "Killers of the Flower Moon" has won her much acclaim. Although Stone's portrayal of the boldly unconventional Bella Baxter in "Poor Things" showcases undeniable talent with its overt "Acting," Gladstone's win carries a weight of history, setting the stage for her to potentially become the first Native American to clinch the best actress Oscar—a feat that could very well sway the Academy.

The battle for best actress seems to be a tight race between Lily Gladstone's role in "Killers of the Flower Moon" and Emma Stone's in "Poor Things." Personally, I perceive Gladstone's performance to lean more on the supporting side, and the film's marketing as her being the lead feels slightly misleading—a straight-from-the-heart narrative focused on her character might have elevated the movie further. Yet Gladstone's eloquent advocacy for Native American representation in cinema is resonant, and with Stone's previous Oscar victory for "La La Land," it may time for the Academy to pave the way for Gladstone's monumental recognition. My preference would be with Carey Mulligan for her stunning role in "Maestro," though it seems that film may not translate its nominations into accolades this season.

In conclusion, as the Oscars approach, predictions and personal favorites become the talk of the town, with debates on who will, who should, and who could win taking center stage. The battle for the golden statues is not just about recognizing the year's most fantastic films and outstanding performances; it's also about marking moments in history and acknowledging shifts in cultural narratives. "Oppenheimer," with its dazzling array of nominations, stands as a titan among this year's contenders, yet it acknowledges that the unexpected can happen, just as it has in Oscars past.

Cillian Murphy and Lily Gladstone are both in stellar positions to take home the coveted awards for their leading roles, with performances that have not only enthralled audiences but also garnered critical acclaim. Yet the Oscars have always had a penchant for celebrating not just the performance but the story behind it, and that’s where the likes of Paul Giamatti, Jeffrey Wright, and Emma Stone come into play, with their impressive legacies and gripping portrayals.

As film lovers and critics watch on, the reality remains that the Oscars are as unpredictable as they are thrilling. While we can speculate and champion our personal preferences, the true excitement lies in the anticipation of who will ultimately triumph on Hollywood's biggest night. Whether it be the frontrunners or the underdogs, the 2024 Oscars promise to be a celebration of cinematic greatness and an affirmation of the evolving tapestry of storytelling that continues to captivate our imaginations.